Hi Brenton,
Sorry your post sort of slipped under the radar...
The basic rules are:
PNR is furthest out in no wind. The stronger the wind the closer the PNR is to base.
ETP moves upwind from halfway. The stronger the wind, the further the ETP point moves upwind.
In Q10 we're told we have a tailwind. That tells us the PNR must be closer to base and how much closer is dependant on the strength of the tailwind. We find the tailwind is less than expected so the PNR point must move less distance towards base. The net effect is the PNR is further out from base than we expected.
As for the ETP, we know it moves upwind from halfway. We have a tailwind so we know it must have moved upwind and therefore back towards our departure point. However we find we have less of a tailwind than we expected so the amount of movement of the ETP upwind is less than we originally expected. That means the ETP is also further out from base than we anticipated.
Final answer, both the PNR and the ETP will be further from base than what was originally planned.
As you found out, you can check that with calculations but you can save yourself some time by just remembering the rule of thumb:
PNR moves closer to base with ANY wind.
ETP moves upwind from halfway.
Of course, everyone should make sure they understand WHY that's true before blindly remembering rules
Cheers,
Rich