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IREX Text Page 184 TAF3 Holding Question

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DARKMAIZE created the topic: IREX Text Page 184 TAF3 Holding Question

I'm struggling to understand the acceptance of option b as the correct answer on the first question on this page considering the TF at the top of page 183 (ie: regarding a NON TAF3 from YMML):

TAF YMML 291645Z 2918/3100 36007KT CAVOK
...
...
FM300900 15005KT CAVOK
PROB30 3016/3022 0500 FG.

By my reading, an arrival at 301530 would mean weather is after the FROM period, so CAVOK other than the fog possibly exist between 301530 (1600 minus 30) and 302230 (2200 plus 30).
Why would one need to hold until 0030 rather than until only 2230?

And a further clarification on the second question (regarding the TAF3).
2522/2700 26016KT 2000 +RA BKN005
FM252330 22020KT 999 -SHRA BKN010
...
...
INTER 2523/2605 5000 SHRA BKN010
...
TAF3

I think option a is correct, but there is no comment "correct answer".
An arrival at 252315 would require an alternate due to the weather at that point being 2km vis + BKN005.
The statement that "does not require the 30 minute buffer" sounds odd.
Given the FROM is an improvement in weather, even if it 'did' get a buffer applied, that would make the situation worse (as the improvement would then not apply until 2600)
Have I got anything wrong in my understanding, as the way the text is written doesn't explain if my understanding is correct.
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