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False Hypothesis

  • Cam
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Cam created the topic: False Hypothesis

Hi,
I am curious about the answer to question No. 36 of the Revision Test 9 - Human Performance and Limitations.
The question asks in which case a false hypothesis is most unlikely to occur.
The answer listed is C. After a series of false alarms
The question seems to contradict the example of High Expectancy in so much as the pilot may falsely hypothesise the actual error to be yet another false alarm.
Does this make the question ambiguous?
With thanks in advance,
Cam
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Cam replied the topic: False Hypothesis

I have just sat one of the cyber exams provided by AFT. The following question and answer was in the exam:

A common source of human error is the false hypothesis. Under certain conditions this is more or less likely than at other times.
The situation least likely to result in a person arriving at a false hypothesis is -

1 when expectancy of an event is high
2 after a period of intense concentration
3 after repeated system false alarms
4 when operations are normal

Submitted Answer was Answer 3 (Incorrect).


The correct answer was 4
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Richard replied the topic: False Hypothesis

Hi Cam,
There was a problem with that question in the database and the answer should indeed have been "when operations are normal". False hypothesis arises for multiple reasons but if ops are normal, there is no false hypothesis developing. Another example is a sudden engine failure. This is also not likely to result in false hypothesis as the evidence is clearly right in front of you.
High expectancy will tempt a pilot into confirmation bias - looking for evidence supporting their expectations and further cementing their version of the reality of the situation.
High concentration can lead to false hypothesis as the pilot relaxes and becomes less attentive.
Repeated false alarms may, as you correctly stated, result in the pilot mistakenly taking a real emergency as another false alarm and not reacting.
Thanks for pointing out the problem. I have now fixed the affected questions.
Cheers,
Rich
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Cam replied the topic: False Hypothesis

Thanks,
Cam
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